SCIENTIFIC HONESTY
Methodology & data provenance
Official survey vs. modeled estimate
Official survey values are Crane Trust bias-corrected aerial abundance indices for the Chapman–Overton corridor. A modeled estimate, when enabled, is explicitly labeled as modeled and shown with a plausible interval.
Historical climatology
Observed survey points are preserved. Weekly observations are used to build historical transition distributions; interpolation is only for daily modeling/visual guidance and is never re-labeled as observation.
River habitat proxy
USGS discharge and stage from Overton, Kearney and Grand Island are normalized into a corridor proxy. The score does not claim a universal perfect flow or convert discharge directly into crane-roost water depth.
Movement weather
NWS hourly forecasts support a separate northbound movement-potential signal using southerly tailwind, temperature, precipitation and visibility-relevant conditions. A strong movement day can increase arrivals early in season and accelerate departures late in season.
Failure behavior
Upstream failures produce stale/unavailable labels, not zero values. Current abundance modeling is withheld when official observations are insufficient or stale.