Live destination decision · Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park

Kilauea’s Next Episode: USGS Forecast Window

Kilauea’s summit erupts in short bursts of lava fountaining, a few hours long with weeks of quiet between. This shows what the USGS says is next, whether the summit is clear enough to see anything, and how often episodes have really started. To decide whether to drive up right now, use Kīlauea Live.

Checking the volcano

Reading the USGS update…

USGS forecast, summit weather and the 2026 record.

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In the USGS’s words

Latest Hawaiian Volcano Observatory update

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Can you see anything from the overlook? The next 36 hours

Each block is one hour at the summit near the Uēkahuna overlook (about 3,700 feet). Green is clear, gold is hazy or cloudy, red is low cloud, fog or rain that would likely hide the glow. Paler blocks are night, Hawaiʻi time. Fog and rain at the summit are the most common reason people drive up and see nothing.

clearhazy or partly cloudyfog, low cloud or rain

The 2026 record

How often, how long, and what time of day

Days between episodes

Each bar is the gap before that episode. The dashed line is how long it has been since the last one ended.

What hour episodes started (Hawaiʻi time)

Count of the 16 episodes by starting hour. Most began in the morning or early afternoon.

Planning a visit

Would an episode fall in your dates?

This counts, across every window of that length from January to October 2026, how many contained at least one episode start. It describes 2026 only. Nothing guarantees the pattern continues: after episode 54 the pause lasted 53 days.

How far to trust a window

Windows the USGS published, and what happened

USGS forecast windows come from how fast the summit is re-inflating. Most are close. Two I checked against the USGS’s own later notices were missed:

This is not a hit rate: I read only these two cases by hand. The USGS says its windows are preliminary and can change.

How the call is made

The rules, published

  1. Fountaining now. The latest USGS daily update says an episode is under way. Episodes in 2026 lasted 6 to 10 hours.
  2. Watch closely. The update describes precursor overflows, today falls inside the forecast window, or the window opens within 3 days.
  3. Not yet. The window is more than 3 days away. Past the window means it has closed without fountaining. No window yet means the update gave no dates.
  4. Summit weather is rated hourly: red if low cloud is 80 percent or more, visibility under 1.5 km or rain of 0.5 mm an hour or more; gold if low cloud is 50 percent or more, light rain or visibility under 5 km; otherwise green.
  5. Gas. Wind from the south or southeast (100 to 210 degrees) can push volcanic gas toward the Uēkahuna and Kīlauea Overlook side, so the page flags it.

Honest limit: nobody can give the start time of an episode, only a range, and the page says so. The weather cutoffs are starting rules, not validated against real viewing trips. The weather model uses a grid about 10 km wide, so it can miss fog that sits on the crater rim. The page never replaces the park’s webcams, its air quality alerts or the closures posted at the overlooks.

Source provenance

What the engine used

Official pages: USGS Kilauea updates · NPS eruption viewing · NPS air quality

The questions visitors actually ask

Seeing Kilauea erupt

Is Kilauea erupting right now?

The summit has erupted in episodes since December 2024. Between episodes it is paused, with a glow in the crater but no fountains. The top of this page says which one it is today.

How long does an episode last?

The 16 episodes of 2026 lasted 6 to 10 hours. That is why a trip needs flexibility: an episode can start and end while you are driving.

Where do I watch from?

From the overlooks along Crater Rim Drive in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, such as Uēkahuna and Kīlauea Overlook. The eruption area is closed. Parking can fill by about 10 a.m. during an episode.

Can the USGS predict the start?

Not to the hour. It publishes a forecast window from summit tilt. Windows have been a few days wide, and a couple have been missed.

What stops people seeing it?

Low cloud, fog and rain at the summit, and sometimes gas or ash blowing across the overlooks. The weather strip above covers cloud, rain, visibility and wind. Gas and closures are on the park’s own pages.

How far is it?

Hilo is under an hour away, Kailua-Kona about two to two and a half hours, before traffic.

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This is decision support, not a safety system. The U.S. Geological Survey and the National Park Service control, and conditions at an active volcano change quickly. An independent site, not affiliated with any agency.