Chris Izworski
Local foliage decision page

Gatlinburg, Tennessee foliage context

The Smokies can hold multiple foliage stages at once because high ridges turn well before lower valleys around Gatlinburg.

This page presets the engine to Gatlinburg so visitors can judge current progression instead of relying on one peak date for the entire park.

Stowe, Vermont · North Conway, New Hampshire · Asheville, North Carolina · Bar Harbor, Maine · Lake Placid, New York

Check another U.S. location

Fall Foliage Timing · satellite history + current weather

Fall color forecast for Gatlinburg, Tennessee

Use historical satellite phenology to see when a landscape usually enters its main autumn transition, then check current weather separately before making the trip.

2026 calibration beta

Works anywhere in the United States: tap Use my location for conditions near me, or type any U.S. city or ZIP code.

Optional. Your browser shares a location rounded to about 0.001° only after you tap. It is used to load nearby conditions and is not included in analytics.

Why a window is better than a fake peak percentage

USA-NPN’s Mid Green-down Median comes from MODIS satellite greenness from 2001–2017. Its median absolute deviation shows how much that timing varied historically. Together they create a defensible timing band rather than an invented “82% peak” number.

Current observations stay separate from the model

When available, this tool also checks recent USA-NPN Nature's Notebook Colored leaves records near the searched place. Those are observations of individual monitored plants and can include drought or stress color, so they never become a landscape “percent peak” or mathematically alter the historical timing band. Also check USDA Forest Service fall color reports and local reports before traveling.

Fall color questions this tool answers

When is peak fall color near me?

Enter a city or ZIP code, or tap Use my location, and the tool reports the window when that landscape has historically entered its main autumn transition, together with how much that timing has varied. It is a timing layer for planning a trip weeks out, not a claim about the trees this week.

Does this show today's color?

No. There is no live leaf camera or current-season color survey behind it. The satellite record ends in 2017 and describes typical timing. For what the woods look like today, check USDA Forest Service fall color reports and local observations.

Why a window instead of a peak percentage?

Because a single "62 percent color" number is precision the underlying data cannot support. The median absolute deviation shown alongside the window is the honest version of the same information: it tells you how far this landscape has historically swung from its own median.

How much can weather move it?

A warm, wet autumn can delay the transition and mute it; drought or an early hard freeze can pull it forward or cut it short. Current weather is shown separately on this page for exactly that reason, and it is never used to silently shift the historical date.

Does it cover Alaska, Hawaii, or Puerto Rico?

Not yet. The USA-NPN greendown layer this beta uses covers the contiguous United States, so a location outside it returns a clear coverage message rather than an invented answer.

Why does elevation change the answer nearby?

Higher ground turns first, which is why a ridge can be past peak while a valley twenty minutes away has barely started. Check a couple of points across the elevation range you plan to drive rather than one town center.

Regional decision engine

Driving the Blue Ridge Parkway?

The Parkway's elevation changes make one regional peak date misleading. The Blue Ridge Parkway Fall Color Live corridor tells you whether a foliage trip is worth chasing yet, then compares representative mileposts for the strongest modeled bet now and seven days ahead. Weather, drought, plant observations and NPS road context stay separate.