What the engine actually knows
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This is intentionally stricter than a normal weather forecast. The Detroit Outdoors water engine requires a recent NOAA/NDBC observation, a healthy marine-alert feed and conservative water and weather thresholds before it publishes a calm-water window.
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Choosing the most useful read from today's verified evidence…
The engine uses NOAA/NDBC station 45147 as a regional Lake St. Clair observation plus the Lake St. Clair Metropark forecast and NWS marine hazards. A weather-only paddling card is suppressed when the water-specific evidence does not pass.
The buoy is roughly 12 miles from Lake St. Clair Metropark. It is useful evidence, but it does not resolve currents, boat traffic, launch status or a small local wind shift at the exact place you enter the water.
Use the Great Lakes Buoy Dashboard as the final water check.
A Small Craft Advisory, stale observation, missing water temperature, rougher waves or stronger wind can all suppress the water opportunity. That is the intended behavior: a missing specialist input never falls back to a prettier land forecast.