This is intentionally stricter than a normal weather forecast. The Detroit Outdoors water engine requires a recent NOAA/NDBC observation, a healthy marine-alert feed and conservative water and weather thresholds before it publishes a calm-water window.
Detroit Outdoors never turns missing or unsafe evidence into a positive recommendation. If the required source or safety gate fails, this page says so and points you to the underlying specialist source.
The hard gate
Weather alone cannot create a paddling recommendation
The engine uses NOAA/NDBC station 45147 as a regional Lake St. Clair observation plus the Lake St. Clair Metropark forecast and NWS marine hazards. A weather-only paddling card is suppressed when the water-specific evidence does not pass.
Current thresholds
What must clear
- Observed waves: no more than 1.5 ft.
- Observed buoy wind: no more than 10 mph.
- Forecast gusts: no more than 16 mph.
- Rain chance: no more than 30%.
- Observed water temperature: at least 58°F for this broad-audience gate.
- No active marine or dangerous-weather hard stop.
Important limitation
Station 45147 is regional, not launch-specific
The buoy is roughly 12 miles from Lake St. Clair Metropark. It is useful evidence, but it does not resolve currents, boat traffic, launch status or a small local wind shift at the exact place you enter the water.
Use the Great Lakes Buoy Dashboard as the final water check.
Why a no matters
Unsafe or incomplete evidence stays out
A Small Craft Advisory, stale observation, missing water temperature, rougher waves or stronger wind can all suppress the water opportunity. That is the intended behavior: a missing specialist input never falls back to a prettier land forecast.