Will I have a White Christmas?
Start with 30 years of Christmas snow-depth history. Then let NOAA's long-range outlook, current snowpack and the actual Christmas forecast take over as December 25 gets closer.
The percentage is a transparent site estimate, not an official NOAA Christmas forecast. It is rounded to 5-point increments to avoid fake precision.
Optional device location is rounded before lookup and is not included in analytics.
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Christmas snow-depth history
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—NOAA Climate Prediction Center
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Broad climate outlooks never become a Christmas Day forecast.Current snowpack
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Snowpack begins influencing the estimate inside 45 days.NWS forecast
The short-range forecast becomes a major factor only once December 25 enters the normal NWS forecast window.
Estimate ingredients
NOAA 1991-2020 White Christmas probability
The map shows the historical chance of at least 1 inch of snow on December 25. It is climatology, not this year's forecast.
NOAA National Snow Analyses
As winter develops, use NOAA's national snow analysis to see the broader pack around your location.
White Christmas maps, history and Michigan depth
White Christmas Probability Map
Understand NOAA's 1991-2020 map, what the 1-inch threshold means and why mountains and lake-effect belts stand out.
White Christmas in Michigan
Detroit, Flint, Saginaw, the U.P. and the huge north-south difference in Michigan Christmas snow climatology.
Snowpack & Snowmelt Conditions
See the measured pack and melt/refreeze intelligence underneath the Christmas estimate.
How the estimate changes through the season
September and October
History does most of the work. CPC seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks can move the prior only a few points because they describe a broad three-month pattern, not Christmas Day.
November to mid-December
The December monthly outlook becomes more useful. Once current snowpack is seasonally meaningful, a nearby measured pack can begin moving the estimate.
The final week
The NWS forecast becomes the strongest weather input. Existing snowpack, forecast snow, rain and temperatures around freezing matter far more than a long-range outlook.
Christmas Eve
The estimate is much more confident, but it still is not a guarantee. Station distance, localized snowfall, elevation and melting can still make the exact yard different from the nearest observation.