Will you have a White Christmas?
Check your local chance of waking up to at least an inch of snow on Christmas morning.
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A normal Christmas compared with this one
Why the odds look this way
Your White Christmas odds over time
Want the weather details?History, seasonal signals, snowpack, forecast sources and methodology
Behind the Christmas forecast
Historical snow-depth baseline—
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—Seasonal climate signal—
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Broad CPC outlooks are context, never a Christmas Day forecast.Current snowpack—
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Snowpack begins influencing the estimate inside 45 days.Christmas-week forecast—
The short-range forecast becomes a major factor only once December 25 enters the normal NWS forecast window.
Full factor mathSee model adjustments
Historical probability mapNOAA 1991–2020 climatology · supporting context
The map shows the historical chance of at least 1 inch of snow on December 25. It is climatology, not this year's forecast.
Sources & methodologyHow the estimate is built and bounded
Source status
Interpretation boundary
This is a synthesized estimate, not an official NOAA/NWS Christmas probability product.
Follow Christmas snow across the country
White Christmas City Guides
Start with snow-relevant U.S. metros and mountain destinations, then jump directly into the live 2026 estimate.
White Christmas Across America
Explore the Great Lakes, Northeast, Plains, Rockies, Cascades, Appalachians, Alaska and the southern edge of the snow belt.
White Christmas Probability Map
See where a snowy Christmas is historically most likely across the United States.
Will It Snow on Christmas?
Know when the actual Christmas-week forecast becomes useful for travel and family plans.